In a shock result, the Ulster Unionist Party has retained its seat on Banbridge District Council after a bye-election in the Dromore area. The DUP, which had forced the bye-election following the resignation of UUP councillor and former rugby player Tyrone Howe, thought it would be a walk in the park. But they hadn't budgeted for the arrival of Jim Allister's Traditional Unionists on the scene.
I was on the ground in the area last night during polling. A lot of people were of the opinion that TUV transfers would go back to the DUP and see them over the finishing post in first place. However, the animosity between the DUP and the two smaller Unionist parties was palpable, and I must admit I had a strong suspicion that the TUV would extract enough support from erstwhile DUP voters for the Ulster Unionists to slip up the middle and win. And that's what happened, with the TUV dislike of the DUP being reflected in their transfers, which benefited the UUP more than many would have assumed.
Although bye-elections aren't the most important in the electoral calendar, they are interesting for the purposes of giving a snapshot at a given time. Given that not a lot was at stake in Dromore, it's clear that many of those who would have traditionally supported the DUP opted to support the TUV in this election to send out a message to Paisley over his Chuckle Brothers routine. It may not be a bloody nose, but it'll certainly sting.
The question now is whether Jim Allister can build momentum for his movement. Certainly there were reports last night of DUP election workers being barracked at polling stations over their decision to abandon everything they had stood for for decades to go into government with Sinn Féin. Certainly this result, which saw the TUV put in a respectable showing, has leant some credibility to Allister's new party. If the Dromore results are reflected in future Assembly elections in other DUP strongholds, then the Paisleyites will be in trouble.
Perhaps this threat to the DUP will come to nothing, but it'll certainly be interesting to watch.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Ulster Unionists Win Dromore Bye-Election
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10 comments:
I hope TUV run in South Belfast in the next Westminster election :P
Interesting point, actually!
And perhaps Europe? Could there be a chance of a unionist split to allow two nationalist seats?
I'd been thinking that myself, Pól, especially as Allister is the incumbent. The UUP have the other unionist incumbent (albeit virtually invisible). The DUP will have to put a new candidate forward, which could level the playing field between three, whereas there's only likely to be two main nationalist contenders.
What exactly does the Traditional Unionist Voice offer the electorate that hasn't been offered in the past by the UUP, DUP, UKUP, NIUP, UUAP, UUUC or any of the other oddball manifestations of rejectionist unionism?
Imagine if they were they to realise their dream and become the majority party of Protestant Ulster: reality would soon hit them and they would be forced to strike some sort of deal with the other parties just like the great Paisley had to. As I pointed out to David Vance (a supporter of TUV) on his ATW blog this scenario would then inevitably lead to the sight of Jim Allister being harangued by little old ladies in Ballymena waving Union Jacks and shouting "Lundy".
And out of all that no doubt some other cynical ex-TUV man would be forced to break away and think of yet another name for a new loyalist political party. Like the endless litany of republican 'sell-outs', how come unionists never seem to be surprised by their groundhog day history of repeated betrayals?
And by the way, isn't 'Traditional Unionist Voice' a crap name for a political party?
Upper Bann as well? Or am I getting too excited?!
Reg-
I would imagine it would be the UUP who would benefit in Upper Bann rather than a nationalist party. Of course, that's certainly better than the DUP winning it again.
Johnny Guitar,
Some very salient points but I think the main difference is that in the past the anti-Agreement Unionists still tried to fool themselves that the DUP would fight their corner no matter what. Now that is not the case so TUV may do better than UKUP etc for that very reason.
Did the SDLP lose to Sinn Féin?
Yes, they did.
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