Nationalism, unionism and that breakfast

A more favorable piece by Barry White – “Why unionists must unite after Paisley” – on DUP leader-elect, Peter Robinson, in today’s Belfast Telegraph, in which White also discusses that breakfast and the possible realignment in nationalist and unionist politics. White argues that Robinson has gone “to the heart of the problem facing unionism, although he didn’t put it quite like this: unless it can maximise its vote, around a single unionist party or a two-party electoral coalition, it has little chance of staying ahead of nationalist representation in future elections.

“The European election next year will prove this point. If the SDLP and Fianna Fail strike a deal, to maximise the moderate nationalist vote and win back some of John Hume's following, it may take the UUP seat. That would leave Northern Ireland represented in Europe by two nationalists and the DUP.”

White is of the opinion – already mooted on this site – that there is a possible nationalist gain in the European at the expense of unionism: “The importance of the European election is that if it were to result in a 2-1 win for nationalism, the old order would be changed fundamentally. Either unionism would respond by much greater DUP-UUP co-operation or it would split into several factions, incapable of making the same impact in Westminster, Stormont or local government.

“Thinking nationalists in both parts of the island are weighing up the possibilities of a moderate come-back, to block Sinn Fein’s seemingly upward march here. That’s what the Fianna Fail-SDLP breakfast last week was all about; showing how much could be gained by both parties if they could present themselves as a nationalist grouping which operates throughout Ireland and is Dublin's natural party of government.

“It’s hard to see why the SDLP would turn down the offer when it becomes a reality later this year. It may have been the instigator of every power-sharing move since 1972, but, alone, it hasn't got the delivery or cutting edge of Sinn Fein. With Fianna Fail, the party could win back most pragmatic nationalists, dismayed by Sinn Fein’s divisiveness.

“Never mind the chuckling that eventually ousted Ian Paisley. The unsolved division is between British unionism and Irish nationalism, and the DUP-Sinn Fein pact, which has been likened to the Hitler-Stalin accord, has produced little of substance apart from four unemployed victims’ commissioners.

“When this becomes more apparent, and voters reject the cynical carve-ups, there are bound to be realignments within the present parties. The moderates could re-group around Fianna Fail-SDLP and a re-born unionist alliance between UUP and DUP, dropping its Paisleyite rhetoric. For as long as Ian Paisley was DUP leader, there was no chance of liberal-minded, pragmatic unionists, brought up to believe they were part of the United Kingdom, not Ireland, voting DUP.”

White argues that Robinson has identified the problem and those “who believe in the union, and want it to remain ahead of the growing appeal of the Irish nationalist ideology, have to find a new way, if one exists, of winning the support of a much higher proportion of apathetic pro-union non-voters.

“How that is to be done, by a new leader who has to laud the man who did more than anyone to split the unionist vote, remains to be seen. He has to broaden his party's appeal, without losing his own hard core, and he has to make compromises with the UUP, to win seats, that both sides have previously rejected. If he does nothing, or if he fails in this task, the fragmentation of the unionist vote is inevitable.”

The full article is on-line at http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/.