Soldiers of Economic Destiny

Brian Cowen, Taoiseach-elect and leader of Fianna Fáil, and Peter Robinson, First Minister in waiting and leader of the DUP, have certainly grabbed the headlines. Cowen’s decision to allow Dublin-based companies in the international financial sector to base themselves in the North with no tax penalty may create anything between 3,000 to 5,000 badly needed – and hopefully – decently paid jobs. Robinson said: “I enthusiastically welcome it. It is a major boost for business on both sides of the Border. It demonstrates how practical co-operation can lead to the benefit of the two economies …it can be a win-win result for our two economies.”

On the face of it, Cowen’s gesture is an astoundingly generous one. Even a casual browsing of the business pages can tell even the most economically illiterate – this blogger especially – that the economic forecast is not good. Allowing companies to take employment out of the Republic seems, on the face of it, to be a gesture of huge magnanimity. And it is. There is no doubt that there is a gamble here for Cowen should things turn very bad in the economy of the Republic.

However, I wonder if he is not playing another game too. After all, the whole-hearted welcome that the DUP have afforded this news can not be taken back. I wonder if Cowen is not also trying to move events along which would see Fianna Fáil MLAs in Stormont making sure that the Republic’s investment is wisely spent? After all, if unionists accept the legitimacy of the political patronage that gives you those euros - and this is political patronage on a massive scale - how can they refuse the home-grown representatives of that same political party from Belfast, Derry or Dungannon rather than from Galway, Offaly or Dublin?

SDLP leader Mark Durkan has already said that he won’t be “jumping into bed” with Fianna Fáil. Durkan has certainly adopted the right approach: “treat them mean and keep them keen.” If the last number of years have taught the SDLP anything, it should be that they should give nothing away for free. That said, Tom Kelly in the Irish News had a very good line in his column yesterday about a possible merger. He wrote: “For the SDLP, the change in the Fianna Fáil leadership leaves the window of opportunity slightly ajar. The brave, the young and the bold will eventually go through it.”

For the SDLP, it may not be a question of jumping into bed but rather deciding whether to accept the (arranged?) marriage or spend the rest of their days on the social democratic shelf. Either way, Fianna Fáil are coming to the fourth green field: arise and follow Brian's largesse.